Course Calendar

COURSE OUTLINE & Calendar

Note: Topics Are Subject to Change

Week 1 (Aug 29) Administration & Basic Measurement
Class Administration

1. Macroeconomists as Scientists, Engineers, & Statisticians

2. Key macro measures & computations: GDP, Price Indexes, Constant Dollar GDP, Unemployment, Wealth
3. Getting to know macro data & sources

Supplements: StL FRED Data: GDP, CPI, PCEPI, Net Worth, Unemployment Rate

Market Watch Calendar Econoday Economic Calendar WSJ Markets Data Center Trading Economics

Assignments: Week 1 Questions + Week 1 Empirical Assignment

Week 2 (Sept 5) Modern Macro Theory Basics: Organizing Thinking

Reading: Why Do Americans Work More Than Europeans? (Minn Fed) ; Overview of Modern Macro (MN Fed)

1. Intuition and solution of a basic dynamic general equilibrium model
2. Long Run modeling topics & simulations with a DGE model (Prescott)
3. Going from Long Run to Short-Run: DGE to DSGE

Supplements: Dynamic Optimization with Lagrangian (need to know)

Dynamic Optimization with Bellman Equation (for the curious)

Assignments: Week 2 Questions + Week 2 Empirical Assignment

Week 3 (Sept 12) Empirical Studies of Living Standards & Growth

Reading: Institutions & Growth (Acemoglu NBER, through p. 28 and Figures 1-9)

1. Cross-country data on living standards & growth

2. Empirical studies on the role of "institutions" & "identification" issues

3. Historical questions: Scandinavia, US states, ...

Supplements: GapMinder Graphics IMF Map World Bank Trading Economics

Assignments: Week 3 Questions + Week 3 Empirical Assignment

Week 4 (Sept 19) Measurement Issues in Macro -- Limits of GDP

Student Summaries/Presentations

1. Issues in measuring wealth, income & saving

2. Measuring consumption v income and its relevance for health expenditures

Week 5 (Sept 26) Business Cycle Topics

Reading: An Overview of the Causes of Business Cycles (Boston Fed)

1. Getting to know key business cycle facts

2. Evaluating business cycle explanations

3. Business Cycle Shocks, Simulations, Models

Supplements: PPT on Business Cycles NBER Recession Dating Graphic Graphic Graphic Misc
VAR Example NY Fed DSGE Model FRB/US Model (Fed BG) FRB Model Equations (Fed BG)

Going from Theory to Linearized DSGE Programming Models
Unit Roots Redux & Unit Roots in English Shocks (Section 1 & conclusion only) (Cochrane)

Cycles v. Shocks (PHI Fed) Hamilton on BC Differences What's Real about BC (Stl Fed)

Seasonal v Non-seasonal GDP

Assignments: Week 5 Questions + Week 6 Student Summaries/Presentations

Week 6 (Oct 3) Measurement Issues in Macro -- Price Indexes

Student Summaries/Presentations

1. Issues in the construction of price indexes:
2. Prices and quality in health care

3. Tech & price levels; tech, services, and the ratio of consumer surplus to income

Week 7 (Oct 10) Exam 1 Key

Week 8 (Oct 17) Inflation

Reading: Quantity Theory Fiscal Theory of Price Level (Dallas Fed) Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic (EER through section 2.2)

1. The Fed: Structure, Objectives, Targets, Tools

2. Inflation & the equation of exchange
3. Sorting out the influence of money supply & money demand (velocity)

4. Fiscal conditions & inflation

Supplements: PPT on Inflation
Challenges in Forecasting Inflation (Chicago Fed)
Cochrane M-Policy with Interest on Reserves (Dallas Fed)

Capacity Utilization and Inflation (PHI Fed)

Assignments: Week 8 Questions + Week 8 Empirical Assignment

Week 9 (Oct 24) Interest Rates: Fisher to Taylor

Reading: Taylor Rule (Richmond Fed) Fed Control of Rates (Fama)

1. Getting to know interest rates

2. The Fisher Equation and rates
3. The Taylor Rule, Fisher Equation, & monetary policy

Supplements: PPT on Rates
Guide to PC (Richmond Fed) Phillips Curve (King Richmond Fed)
Friedman & Taylor on Monetary Policy (StL Fed)

Neo-Fisher Effect (Williamson StL Fed) Neo-Fisher PPT (Bullard StL Fed)

Interest Rates Don't Matter Much (Thornton StL Fed) also Cochrane

Estimating the Natural Real Rate (KC Fed) + Hamilton et al

Assignment: Week 9 Questions + Week 9 Empirical Assignment

Week 10 (Oct 31) Fed Policy Overview & Estimation Issues

Reading: Identifying Govt Spending Shocks (Ramey) Eight Heresies on Monetary Policy (Cochrane)

1. Key questions about Fed policy

2. Identification issues for fiscal multipliers

3. Identification issues for monetary shocks

Supplements:  PPT on estimation of policy effects
Policy Identification Issues (Ramey)   Monetary Shocks (Ramey)
     Monetary Shocks (Ramey) Survey of Fiscal Multipliers (JEL, Ramey)

8 Heresies of Monetary Policy (Cochrane GE) QE (Willliamson StL Fed)

Assignments: Week 10 Questions + Week 10 Empirical Assignments

Week 11 (Nov 7) EU, Japan, China MacroEconomics

Reading: Continental Divide (Richmond Fed) What's Wrong in Europe (Voxeu) Banking Problems (Atkeson-Cochrane ) Alternative View of Currency Unions (John Cochrane)

1. Optimal currency areas in theory and practice

2. Monetary/Fiscal policy interaction and status

3. Long run and short run issues Goff PPT

Supplements: IMF World Econ Outlook Mapper Cochrane on Euro

Commodity Prices & Country Outcomes (StL Fed)

Global & Regional Comovements (StL Fed)

Fiscal Sustainability Cross Country (KC Fed)

Assignments: Week 11 Empirical Assignments

Week 12 (Nov 14) Student Summaries/Presentations -- Tracking & Predicting GDP
See Empirical Assignment for More Detail

-- Tracking macroeconomic performance in (near) real time

Tracking Economy with NowCasts (StL Fed)

Chicago Fed CFNIA (Chicago Fed)

Phil Fed Real-Time Research Data Center

ATL Fed;

-- Using The Yield Curve to Predict Recessions

Yield Curve as Predictor of Recessions (NY Fed) NYT Yield Curve Visualization
Breaking Down Yield Curve Shifts (SF Fed)

Week 13 (Nov 21) Thanksgiving Break

Week 14 (Nov 28) Student Summaries/Presentations -- Misceallaneous

Student Presentations

1. Impacts of Capital Gains Taxes

2. The accuracy of Chinese Data

BG: Measuring "natural" real rate of interest

Underground Economy

Week 15 (Dec 5) Exam 2

Week 16 Finals Week

Additional Topics:

Related Links:

Macro disasters, depressions, financial collapse : Barro & Ursua Barro & Ursua

Inflation Expectations: 1 2 3 (Clev Fed)

-- Inflation & Capacity Utilization rates (Phil Fed)

Supplements:

Indicators & real time (or close) measures of economic activity: Richmond Fed; Bloomberg Economic Calendar

Rents across US Cities (KC Fed)

-- Impacts of Corporate Income Taxes